Happy August 1 and a Head's Up...it's that time again

All eyes to the east as systems are forming, merging, organizing and heading in our direction. Our meaning the Caribbean, not Maine. For a very good, well thought out discussion on what is now 91L, check here.

Here is a pretty clear warning and wake up call from the head weather honchos.

AT 01/00Z THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUN BROUGHT THE AXIS OF THE
NEXT WAVE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 05/23Z AND
06/06Z WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS
THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND IS
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS THAN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS IT AT 21.3
DEGREES NORTH AT 06/12Z NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER IS GIVING THIS SYSTEM A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS OF 2 AM THIS MORNING. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO SAY THAT IT WILL OR WILL NOT DEVELOP AND WHERE IT WILL TRACK
ONCE IT HAS DEVELOPED IF IT DOES SO...BUT EITHER WAY...SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL FALL IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD BRING THEIR
SEASONAL PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANES TO COMPLETION SOON. RAINS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

If you aren't ready, get ready, it's that simple (and that often ignored). Most of you know the drill. If you are new to the island(s) it's the little things you need to think about now, like your prescriptions, having cash on hand, where will you take your pets if you need to be someplace safe other than where you live? Along with the regular to-do lists which are available all over the internet. 

Again, nothing is a guaranteed hit or a miss, but this looks like a system that I'd want to be sure I had my batteries in a row for. I'll sing my refrain again...hope for the best, prepare for the worst and keep you liquor closet ready.  

Severe housing damage near the airport on Culebra Hurricane Hugo

Image ID: wea00461, NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) Collection
Location: Puerto Rico
Photo Date: Late September, 1989
Photographer: Dr. Joseph Golden, NOAA

Maine photo of the day - a sidewalk corner in Portland ME

Have a smart Sunday! Do something  strengthening.