Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Brought to You By TD 9

There seems to be some pretty strong reasoning to believe TD 9 will stay south of us and all will be fine;, you can read all about it in many places (here's one place and here's another place) - . The more important question is, are you prepared if it shifts north? Gets stronger? Moves in to eat our lunch? If not, you'll be having a fun day fighting the hordes on the big island or finding out their ain't no nothin' left on Culebra. My sympathy o meter will be hard pressed but I'd still share my water with you, if I was there.

Here's a fact filled hurricane page, entertaining too.




08/21/2012 10:43 AM EDT


000
WTNT34 KNHC 211442
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER
ANTILLES...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------
-----------------
LOCATION...15.1N 52.8W
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...
MONTSERRAT...ANGUILLA...AND BARBUDA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND EMERGE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Have a get it together Tuesday! Do something thoughtfully (and if your own preps are done, help out a neighbor who might be in need!)

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