A weather outlook

Because it is the Fourth of July weekend, I'm posting the rather interesting (if you live here or are visiting here) weather discussion out of San Juan. If you see me wearing a scarf over my nose and mouth one of these days, do NOT leap to the conclusion that I am now engaged in route road robbery! Oh well, it should make for an interesting Fourth and some good sunrises and sunsets!


Later on, some Fourth of July food thoughts for What's in that...Friday.

If you don't care about the weather here, how about wishing

you had some just off the tree mangoes??

Or maybe you'd like to be experiencing Treat of the Day bliss, like Kai?

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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
314 am AST Friday Jul 3 2009

Discussion...deep layer ridging still anchored just north of
local area maintaining dry conditions above boundary layer. Two
tropical waves on the map this morning of interest to PR/USVI.
First wave axis around 55-57w...and the second approaching 40w.
First wave will push west and cross the Caribbean waters south of area
this afternoon. Behind that wave...and working into the second one
is a very large and very dense area of Saharan dust. Expect dust
to move over USVI and then PR...increasing in density this
evening...and becoming entrenched everywhere by Saturday. Saturday
the haze should impact visibilities at all taf sites and will be
very noticeable. Moisture and weather with first wave will not be
significant.

Its the second wave...with forward edge approaching
vi Sunday morning that brings the weather. Going numerous probability of precipitation
early Sunday into Monday middle day.

Afterward...dust should linger at least until passage of second
wave on Monday. After that its harder to say because dust not
obvious on sal imagery far into the eastern Atlantic yet...but logic
would say more dust would follow the second wave for Monday-
Wednesday...until yet another wave approaches (wednesday). Synoptic
scenario looks similar for the extended except that subtropical
high moves more eastward over the central Atlantic...with waves running the
low latitudes and bringing dust across the tropopause Atlantic.

Seas will steadily increase over the Caribbean waters and southern
portion of passages as low level flow increases through the
weekend. Small Craft Advisory in place for Caribbean waters beginning tomorrow morning.
Going significantly lower than wave watch guidance which shows 8
foot seas over the offshore Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Think this is
overdone...and will only go with 7's over the Caribbean and leave Atlantic
out for now.