Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Head's Up, Island People

Time to keep an eye on the weather and make sure you're prepared (yes, that should have been done in June) for whatever might be coming our way. Hopefully a rain event, hopefully not more than that. 

From stormcarib.com yesterday -
There is a new invest still far out (over 1500 miles) in the Atlantic. Our first 'Cape Verde' storm of the season. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 70% chance (today it is a 90% chance) to become a tropical depression in 5 days. When you squint your eyes a bit the spaghetti plots of model forecasts (see links above) show a west-northwest track, which might bring it to the Leeward Islands in 5-6 days. It might even become our first hurricane (Danny). However, since the 'storm' is still not a storm you have to take these forecast with a grain of salt. Conditions are not that great for rapid development, there is a lot of vertical wind shear and some dry air ahead. But still, we will be closely following the progress of the tropical wave. -Gert



From NOAA this morning - 
Thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands has continued to become better organized this morning.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and only a slight increase in organization would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2 comments:

  1. Stay safe and heads up yourself!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Oh, I'm good (with weather and life!), thanks!

    ReplyDelete